UpFront Politics: War Strategy

Putin’s Game Of Chess

Russia arms above entry of Petropalovskaya fortress
Posted: July 22, 2016 at 3:58 am   /   by   /   comments (0)

America has sent more reinforcement’s to defend the Baltic States from Russian aggression.

Russia has invaded Ukraine and NATO fears this could happen to the Baltic States. The Baltic States are located in Eastern Europe by Finland, Russia, and Belarus.

These three states can be easily conquered in 72 hours by Russia according to a report by www.rand.org. This is why America and NATO are putting in reinforcements to beef up a defense against Russia, but is this a mistake that Putin has tricked the United States again.

Putin is a counter puncher. When the United States makes its move, then he makes his move. When we study American, NATO, and Russian Foreign Policy we will examine the military and political moves by these nations. We will see that Putin wins every time in these real life situations.

In 2008 NATO wanted to give Georgia NATO membership. Russia was angry that NATO was approaching so close to its border, that Russia felt threaten by the NATO expansion. So, Russia decided to counter the NATO membership by invading the country. The war between Russia and Georgia lasted five days. Today, Russia controls two regions Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

This is one example when Putin has used military force to stop NATO membership on its border. So, far Russia has won by removing the chance of NATO membership in Georgia.

In 2014 the United States (according to Putin) overthrew the Russian-backed government in Ukraine. The United States was trying to make Ukraine into a pro-western democracy, which would move closer to the United States and NATO. NATO was seeking to expand its membership to Ukraine so it could be part of the NATO alliance, but this NATO expansion would threaten Russia by having a NATO member so close to its border.

Vladimir Putin decided to invade Ukraine to stop the NATO expansion on its border. On March 1, 2014, the Russian parliament approves military action to invade Ukraine. March 18, 2014, Putin annexed Crimea, later adding Crimea to the Russian Federalization. Today, Russia is still fighting in the Eastern part of Ukraine. Currently, Russia has stopped the NATO membership in Ukraine.

In 2011 the United States wanted to remove President Bal-Assad from power. The United States was supporting rebels that were against the regime. The United States had four years to overthrow the president from power but failed to remove him in this period. Assad was losing ground until Russia stepped in.

Russia has used its air force and ground troops from Iran and Syria to fight against Western-backed rebels. So far, the Russians have killed many of them, and a cease-fire has been called. The Russians have taken over diplomatic talks, and the removal of Assad is going away by the day. Russia has stepped in to defend his ally and had change the diplomat talks to keep Assad in power.

This shows in three situations where Russia has countered America and NATO in a smart way to stop America and NATO in its tracks. Now in 2016 America is again taking the first step in the Baltic States. This might again be another trap and counter move by Putin.

While the United States build forces in the Baltic States and with NATO allies, this will allow Russia to counter by building forces to combat the United States and NATO aggression in the Baltic States. What might be Russia’s counter?

Example of military Scenarios
The Russian’s might build a huge defense close to the Baltic States to counter NATO’s aggression. This will allow Putin to make a cover story to create a military force right by these three states. It could be true to the report that said Russia could take over the Baltic States in less than 72 hours, but Russia would be attacking NATO members. The reality is, Russia most likely won’t invade the Baltic States. It is probably a political and military move by Putin.

This build up in forces by Russia can help to create an invasion force not to invade the Baltic States, but to invade Finland and Sweden. Putin will say his forces are to deter NATO’s aggression in the Baltic States.

The country of Finland is not a NATO member or has nuclear weapons. The Russian invasion of Finland can take more control of the Baltic Sea. Russia has a military base called Kaliningrad
between Poland and Lithuanian. This military base and control of the Baltic Sea could allow Russia to cut supplies to the Baltic States from the Sea and the base. This pincer movement can strive supplies from the Baltic States by not firing a bullet.

Sweden is also a non-NATO nation and does not have nuclear weapons. The conquered territory can give them more control of Gulf of Bothnia and the Baltic Sea. This will allow Russia to invade two non-NATO member countries, which will help to cut supplies to the Baltic States.

Putin is an excellent strategies and leader for his nation. He is a good counter fighter towards the United States and NATO military strategy. America should think twice when making the first move. Putin knows how to play chest and he is winning.

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Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of any agency

1.https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/research_reports/RR1200/RR1253/RAND_RR1253.pdf
2.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Georgian_War
3.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_Ukraine_(2014%E2%80%93present)
4.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_military_intervention_in_the_Syrian_Civil_War
5.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Kaliningrad_in_Russia.svg